统计分析表明，“连胜”或一连串的成功是真实存在的，每个人在职业生涯的某个时间点都会经历这些.
“连胜”，也称为“连胜”，定义为连续获胜或 成功 或一连串的好 运气. 何时以及为什么获胜有点神秘 条纹 happen in a person’s career i.e. when is the phase they are most successful in or have the best creative insights. 科学家 and statisticians have pondered over this and have sometimes supported the theory of ‘probability’ for such consecutive successes. For example, in the field of sport, tossing of the coin theory is applied that if one tosses a coin several times a non-random sequence might occur at any given point. Other times it was believed that hard work could increase the possibility of a hot streak or it may at least help in continuing or maintaining it. There is still no comprehensive or logical explanation behind the concept of hot streak. Everyone wants to access the ‘secret formula’ for their elusive hot streaks because everyone chases abundant success in their careers.
“热流”概念
在发表的一项研究 自然, researchers at Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University, USA analysed and judged the careers dataset of 20,400 scientists, 6,233 motion picture/film directors and 3,480 individual artists focusing broadly on the fields of arts and 科学. For artists, researchers looked at the prices of their works which they simply charged and received at art auctions. A good way to judge film directors was looking at their ratings on the website IMDB (Internet Movie DataBase) because their ratings climbed up and down based upon how successful they were at a timepoint. For analysing career projections of scientists and researchers, it was seen how much their 研究 works were cited in academic journals (data gathered from Google Scholar and Web of Science). 研究人员 explain that a “hot streak” defined as a period of powerful creative brilliance shown by people happens at least once in someone’s career and it usually continues for a period of about five years. During this fertile period, success achieved is higher than any other time in the career. Almost a quarter of this entire pool of people had two or more winning streaks. Therefore, this winning streak is very much “real” and not an untrue concept (as sometimes it is assumed) and it generally just occurs without any forewarning. For decades, analysts’ have maintained that everyone generally peaks sometime in the middle of a career, example, if someone starts working at 25 years and retires at 60, they experience a peak sometime in their late forties. However, evidence in this latest research says that hot streak is more “random” and can happen at any stage of someone’s career. So, this winning streak has nothing to do with age. For instance, a scientist or even an artist could have this streak of success or “peak of creativity” in early, middle or later part of his or her career.
没有什么比成功更成功！
此外，其分析认为，五年的时间段意味着一旦开始热潮并取得高水平的成功，这将导致更频繁的后续成功以一种集群的方式在一个人的职业生涯中额外注入一段时间的好运. 一项突出的成就可以轻松提升一个人的成就，他或她可能会更加专注并对自己的能力感到满意。 这为他们的工作带来了更多的名气和认可，从而继续他们的成功连胜一段时间。 大的贡献也是因为在连胜开始后与合适的人交往。 例如，一位取得重大成功的科学家将获得更多的资助/资助和奖项，而一位艺术家可能能够建立自己的画廊，这可以进一步带来更多的名气和知名度。 同样，电影导演可以获得更多的电影交易和电影导演，并获得更高的报酬和利润份额，更不用说获得电影奖项的更多名气了。 著名画家文森特·梵高 (Vincent van Gogh) 在 1888 年创作了 200 多幅画作，并在个人笔记上从巴黎搬到了法国南部大自然中的小地方，这使他更加快乐和满足。 著名的理论物理学家阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦在1905年发现相对论并因此获得诺贝尔奖时，吃了一顿非比寻常的热牛排。 随后，他发现了布朗运动——分子如何相互作用——标志着这一时期是物理学发现的辉煌时期。
研究人员确实明白科学或艺术是高度主观的领域，成功的质量不能真正以客观数据的形式表现出来。 但是仍然有一些通用的方法可以判断成功。 例如，科学家在连续火爆时会因其工作而获得更高的引用次数，而且这种情况通常会持续长达 10 年。 同样，电影导演获得更高的 IMDB 评级，这既衡量了他们的工作获得的赞誉，也衡量了票房数字。 而且，对于艺术家而言，拍卖价格是衡量其受欢迎程度和成功以及最重要的作品价值的良好指标。 俗话说，没有什么比成功更成功。 一次成功会带来更多获得进一步成功、资金流、奖励和晋升的机会。 但是因为研究人员的目标是进行统计分析，所以他们更感兴趣的是查看一个人在职业生涯中获得的“价值”。 虽然实际上成功的定义是相对的，有些人在道德背景下定义它，带来精神满足和幸福指数。
连胜的另一个重要方面是，它不仅是真实的，而且无法真正预测，并且可能在任何给定时间发生。 经过一段时间，很可能是五年后，一个人的热潮就会结束。 在这项研究中，没有发现一个人的能力和生产力与他们在职业生涯中取得的成功水平之间存在联系。 此外，在“热潮”期间，一个人的生产力也没有明显提高。 然而，蓬勃发展的自我被视为一种特质，它肯定会导致创造性的成功。 听起来很有希望，每个人都获得了连续运行的份额，例如，在分析的数据集中，90% 的科学家拥有，91% 的艺术家和 88% 的电影导演也是如此。 因此，它应该在其他领域普遍存在，因为这三个职业已经彼此非常不同，并且选择它们进行分析主要是因为易于组装其数据集。 “连热”绝对是一种普遍现象。
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{您可以通过单击下面引用来源列表中给出的 DOI 链接来阅读原始研究论文}
来源（S）
陆刘等。 2018. 艺术、文化和科学事业的热潮。 自然.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0315-8
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